Peter Skelsey
Research Leader
Information and Computational Sciences
T: +44 (0)1382 568913
Research
- Developing new epidemic theory on the spread of pests and diseases.
- Building disease forecasting systems for crop pests and pathogens.
- Performing climate change risk assessments for numerous pests and pathogens of importance to the Scottish economy.
- I am a key staff member leading Integrated Pest and Disease Management (IPM) research at the James Hutton Institute. For details of ongoing IPM research areas and projects, please visit the IPM@hutton website.
- I am leader of a project under the Scottish Government Strategic Research Programme Theme A (Plant and Animal Health), Topic Line A1 (Plant Disease).
Core skills
My research involves analysis of spatial and spatiotemporal patterns in epidemiological data, and development of computer models to help us better understand and predict the spread of pests and diseases. I have a background in theoretical epidemiology and landscape ecology, with extensive experience in quantitative research methods and spatiotemporal epidemic simulation. My specialist skills include ArcGIS, machine learning, and the modelling of abiotic and biotic dispersal processes.
Grants and awards
- 2022-2027: Principal Investigator – ‘Understanding the prinicpal drivers of pest and disease incidence, severity, and spread in Scotland, and the factors currently limiting effective disease control’ – Scottish Government RESAS.
- 2021-2023: Principal Investigator – ‘Machine-Cast: A scalable machine learning framework for forecasting risk of crop pests and pathogens’ – Innovate UK.
- 2021-2022: Principal Investigator – ‘Modelling the spread of PCN in Scotland to identify the key factors responsible and
the most appropriate management options for future mitigation’ – Plant Health Centre. - 2020-2023: Investigator – ‘Building a Decision Support Tool for Potato Blackleg Disease (DeS-BL)’ – BBSRC.
- 2018-2022: Principal Investigator – ‘Applications of machine learning to identify drivers of Phytophthora infestans population diversity’ – Mylnefield Trust.
- 2018-2022: Principal Investigator – ‘Applications of machine learning to precision potato blackleg prediction’ – AHDB Potatoes.
- 2017-2019: Principal Investigator – ‘Spatiotemporal analyses of potato late blight outbreaks in Great Britain’ – AHDB Potatoes.
- 2015-2018: Investigator – ‘Optimised detection and control of potato blight: sensing pathogens to inform smart spray decisions’ – Innovate UK.
- 2015-2018: Investigator – ‘BLIGHTSENSE: Development of a rapid biosensor system for in-field detection of potato late blight pathogens’ – Innovate UK.
- 2014-2016: Principal Investigator – ‘Improved epidemic management using sophisticated models of infection and spread’ – AHDB/PCL.
- 2014-2015: Investigator – ‘CropForecast’ – Technology Strategy Board: Solving business problems with environmental data.
- 2013-2016: Investigator – ‘Strategies for integrated deployment of host resistance and fungicides to sustain effective crop protection’ – BBSRC.
- 2013-2016: Investigator – ‘An investigation into the routes of blackleg contamination of high grade potato seed stocks by Pectobacterium species and the effects of sulphuric acid treatment on pathogen spread’ – AHDB/PCL.
- 2013-2015: Principal Investigator – ‘Future environmental and geographic risks of key crop pests and pathogens in Scotland’ – ClimateXChange.
Past research
- Kansas State University, USA, 2009-2012. Research Associate. Department of Plant Pathology / Division of Biology:
- Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 2009. PhD in Epidemiology. Dissertation: ‘Multi-scale modeling of potato late blight epidemics.’
- Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 2003. Marie-Curie Research Fellowship in Epidemiology.
- Edinburgh University, Scotland, UK, 2002.BTechnol. (Hons) In Environmental Protection and Management.
Publications
Journals
- Skelsey, P. (2024) Landscape-scale patterns and predictors of potato viruses in Scotland, Plant Pathology (Early View)
- Skelsey, P.; Civita, F.; Humphris, S. (2023) Landscape epidemiology of potato blackleg, Phytopathology, 113(8), 1474-1482
- Torro-Galiana, A.; Cooke, D.E.L.; Skelsey, P. (2023) Spatiotemporal analysis of Phytophthora infestans population diversity and disease risk in Great Britain, Plant Pathology, 72(4), 786-796
- Newton, A.; Skelsey, P. (2023) Understanding the effect of component proportions on disease control in two-component cultivar cereal mixtures using a pathogen dispersal scaling hypothesis, Nature Scientific Reports, 13(1), Art. 4091
- Skelsey, P. (2021) Forecasting risk of crop disease with anomaly detection algorithms., Phytopathology, 111(2), 321-332.
- Skelsey, P.; Kettle, H.; MacKenzie, K.; Blok, V. (2018) Potential impacts of climate change on the threat of potato cyst nematode species in Great Britain., Plant Pathology, 67, 909-919.
- Skelsey, P.; Dancey, S.R.; Preedy, K.; Lees, A.K.; Cooke, D.E.L. (2018) Forecasting the spread of aerially transmitted crop diseases with a binary classifier for inoculum survival., Plant Pathology, 67, 920-928.
- Skelsey, P.; Humphris, S.N.; Campbell, E.J.; Toth, I.K. (2018) Threat of establishment of non-indigenous potato blackleg and tuber soft rot pathogens in Great Britain under climate change, PLoS ONE, 13(10), art.e0205711
- Skelsey, P.; Cooke, D.E.L.; Lynott, J.S.; Lees, A.K. (2016) Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland., Global Change Biology, 22, 3724-3738.
- Skelsey, P.; Elphinstone, J. G.; Saddler, G. S.; Wale, S. J.; Toth, I.K. (2016) Spatial analysis of blackleg-affected seed potato crops in Scotland., Plant Pathology, 65, 570-576.
- Skelsey, P.; Newton, A.C. (2015) Future environmental and geographic risks of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Scotland., European Journal of Plant Pathology, 142, 133-147.
- Skelsey, P.; Newton, A.C. (2014) Scale-dependent assessment of relative disease resistance to plant pathogens., Agronomy, 4, 178-190.
- Zhang, X.; White, R.P.; Demir, E.; Jedryczka, M.; Lange, R.M.; Islam, M.; Li, Z.Q.; Huang, Y.J.; Hall, A.M.; Zhou, G.; Wang, Z.; Cai, X.; Skelsey, P.; Fitt, B.D.L. (2014) Leptosphaeria spp., phoma stem canker and potential spread of L. maculans on oilseed rape crops in China., Plant Pathology, 63, 598-612.
- Skelsey, P.; With, K.A.; Garrett, K.A. (2013) Pest and disease management: Why we shouldn’t go against the grain., PLoS ONE, 8, Article No. e75892.
- Skelsey, P.; With, K.A.; Garrett, K.A. (2013) Why dispersal should be maximised at intermediate scales of heterogeneity., Theoretical Ecology, 6, 203-211.
Books
- Garret, K.A.; Forbes, G.A.; Gomez, L.; Gonzales, M.A.; Gray, M.; Skelsey, P.; Sparks, A.H. (2013) Cambio climatico, enfermedades de las plantas e insectos plaga., In: Jimenez, E. (ed.). Cambio Climatico y Adaptation en el Altipcano Boliviano. CIDES-UMSA, Bolivia, pp71-96. ISBN: 978-99954-1-527-3
Reports
- Skelsey, P. (2022) Modelling the spread of PCN in Scotland, Plant Health Centre, final project report
- Toth, I.; Humphris, S.; Brierley, J.; Skelsey, P.; Saddler, G.; Cahill, G.; Wale, S. (2016) Routes of blackleg contamination of high grade potato seed stocks by Pectobacterium species., AHDB Final Project Report April 2013 – May 2016 (Ref 111R475).
- Skelsey, P.; Newton, A.C. (2014) Impacts on Agriculture: ‘‘Climate Change and Wheat Fusarium Head Blight Epidemics: Present and Future Risks., CXC Summary Report.
Conference papers
- Cooke, D.E.L.; Lynott, L.; Sullivan, L.; Skelsey, P.; Torro-Galiana, A.; Lees, A.K. (2020) Integrated potato late blight management in response to an evolving pathogen population., Proceedings, The Dundee Conference: Crop Protection in Northern Britain, Apex City Quay Hotel, Dundee, 25-26 February 2020, pp205-210.
- Torro-Galiana, A.; Cooke, D.; Skelsey, P. (2019) Applications of machine learning to identify drivers of Phytophthora infestans population diversity., Seventeenth Euroblight Workshop, York, UK, 12-15 May 2019. WUR Special Report, No 19, pp169-174.
- Skelsey, P. (2019) One-class classification for blight risk forecasting., Seventeenth Euroblight Workshop, York, UK, 12-15 May 2019. WUR Special Report, No 19, pp51-56.
- Skelsey, P.; Dancey, S.; Cooke, D.E.L (2017) Forecasting the risk of late blight spread., Proceedings of the 16th EuroBlight Workshop, Aarhus, Denmark, 14-17 May 2017, PAGV Special Report 18, pp61-66.
- Dancey, S.R.; Skelsey, P.; Cooke, D.E.L. (2017) The Hutton criteria: a classification tool for identifying high risk periods for potato late blight disease development in Great Britain., Proceedings of the 16th EuroBlight Workshop, Aarhus, Denmark, 14-17 May 2017, PAGV Special Report 18, pp53-58.
- Cooke, D.E.L.; Skelsey, P.; Dancey, S.; Randall, E.; Sullivan, L.; Lees, A.K. (2016) Potato late blight research update; populations, primary inoculum and predictions., The Dundee Conference: Crop Protection in Northern Britain 2016, Dundee, 23-24 February 2016, pp211-216.
- Toth, I.K.; Humphris, S.; Pritchard, L.; Skelsey, P. (2014) Environmental spread of Pectobacterium and Dickeya: diagnostics to modelling., Euphresco Pectobacterium and Dickeya Workshop, Bern, Switzerland, 25 November 2014.
- Skelsey, P.; Cooke, D.E.L. (2013) Where do we go after Smith?, Proceedings of the Fourteenth EuroBlight Workshop, Limassol, Cyprus, 12-15 May 2013. PPO-Special Report no. 16, 35-39.
Conference posters
- Torro-Galiana, A.; Cooke, D.E.L.; Skelsey, P. (2019) Applications of machine learning to identify drivers of Phytophthora infestans population diversity., The 17th EuroBlight Workshop, York, UK, 12-15 May 2019. (Poster)
- Skelsey, P.; Lees, A.; Torrance, L. (2017) Blightsense: Development of a rapid biosensor system for in-field detection of Phytophthora infestans., In: Schepers, H.T.A.M. (ed.). Proceedings of the 16th Euroblight Workshop, Aarhus, Denmark, 14-17 May 2017. PAGV Special Report No.18, 239. (Poster)
- Lees, A.; Skelsey, P.; Cooke, D.E.L. (2017) Smartspray: Optimised detection and control of potato blight: sensing pathogens to inform smart spray decisions., In: Schepers, H.T.A.M. (ed.). Proceedings of the 16th Euroblight Workshop, Aarhus, Denmark, 14-17 May 2017. PAGV Special Report No.18, 235. (Poster)
- Lees, A.; Cooke, D.; Dancey, S.; Skelsey, P. (2017) Potato late blight: tools for integrated pest management., Potato Late Blight: Tools for Integrated Pest Management. Proceedings of AAB Conference ‘Advances in IPM’, Harper Adams 26-27 September 2017.
